Bookmakers are taking bets on Trump to end the war in Ukraine in 90 days
Polymarket Platform accepts bets that US President-elect Donald Trump will be able to end the war in Ukraine within 90 days of taking office (Trump's inauguration will take place on January 20, 2025). Bookmakers estimate the probability of such a scenario at 45%.
Photo: Andreistanescu | Dreamstime.com
Despite Donald Trump's assurances that if elected US president he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours, bookmakers' forecasts give him much more time. At the same time, some Polymarket clients noted that even a 90-day time frame is too short.
By ending the war in 90 days, Polymarket means one of the following: Ukraine and Russia formally declare at least a temporary ceasefire, a ceasefire along all front lines, or a negotiated settlement. This must happen any time between Trump winning the election and 23:59 p.m. ET on April 19, 2025 (90 days after the inauguration).
Screenshot from the Polymarket website
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In the comments to the conditions proposed on polymarket, there are different assumptions about how events will develop:
"It will take him more than 90 days."
"It wouldn't surprise me if this is resolved before Trump officially takes office. Trump and Putin will sort this out quickly, as Trump has mentioned on numerous occasions."
"Both Trump and Putin are talking about a peace deal from 2022. Zelensky was held back by the Biden administration. Zelensky's cocaine supply is gone, and Putin has fulfilled all his plans for Ukraine. The odds are pretty good. It's unlikely that Putin will want to completely destroy Ukraine. There's virtually no real benefit to that."
"Both Ukraine and Russia are eagerly awaiting Trump's return, mainly for a ceasefire. Whether someone should give up land or not, it doesn't matter to the market. If Kamala had won, the war would have lasted another 4 years. And with Trump, who has experience in improving relations even with North Korea, the negotiations will be smoother."
"And what will he do? It's too late for phone calls and words. About a million soldiers have already died, millions more have been wounded. North Korea has openly entered the war, Putin is not going to stop it. Only NATO can end it, and even if they provide all kinds of weapons, to destroy this army you will need much more than 90 days."
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During his victory speech in Florida, Donald Trump made a number of big claims. He promised to end wars, close borders, cut taxes and strengthen the military.
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