Most of the victims of the pandemic will not be from COVID-19: deadly diseases will cover the world

The world is in a pandemic of coronavirus infection. But despite the number of deaths from COVID-19, according to experts, most people will die not from coronavirus, but from other diseases. Edition with the BBC explained why so.

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Two-year-old Emil Huamuno loved to play in the hollow of a large tree near his home in the village of Meliandou, the heart of the Guinean jungle.

But that big cozy hollow was not only to his liking, there were other residents there: bats. Children sometimes caught them to fry for dinner.

And then Emil fell ill. On December 28, 2013, an unknown serious illness took his life. After the boy, his sister died, followed by his mother and grandmother.

Since then, the disease began to gradually gain momentum.

By March 23, 2014, there were already 49 patients and 29 deaths. Doctors confirmed that the cause of the lesion was the Ebola virus.

The next three and a half years, the world watched in horror as the disease claimed more than 11,3 thousand lives.

At the same time, against the background of one tragedy, another unfolded.

The Ebola outbreak seriously paralyzed the work of local health services - infected doctors died, many hospitals stopped working, and those that were working were themselves fighting the virus.

In the three most affected countries - Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea - people began to avoid medical care in every possible way.

They were afraid of a new mysterious disease, and they were also afraid of doctors whose white protective overalls were terrifying and associated with sudden death.

By 2017, it was revealed that the pandemic led to a sharp drop in the popularity of medicine.

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The number of pregnant women who went to the doctors during childbirth decreased by 80%, the vaccination rate dropped sharply, and the number of children with malaria hospitalized was reduced by 40%.

Ironically, this side effect turned out to be more serious than the disease itself.

In 2020, the world again runs the risk of facing a similar scenario.

There is no single enemy

At the beginning of the current pandemic, many countries sought to convince people that combating COVID-19 required priority attention. Additional funding was allocated for the purchase of ventilators and hospital beds, thousands of doctors were redirected to intensive care units.

The world threw all its efforts to overcome the coronavirus, and everything that was considered urgent was postponed until better times. These include, but are not limited to, certain types of operations, sexual and mental health measures, tobacco dependence treatment programs, dentistry, vaccination, cancer screening, and regular medical examinations.

However, it turned out that all these things are very important. And such concepts as an “extra” doctor or “extra” medical care, in the end, simply do not exist.

For example, in the Balkans, women resort to self-abortion. And in Britain, cases of do-it-yourself dental treatment have become more frequent - with the help of chewing gum, wire cutters and superglue.

And, as is usually the case with all crises, the current pandemic seems to hit poor countries the most.

Scientists warn that in some countries, failures in the treatment of diseases such as HIV, tuberculosis and malaria can lead to losses on the same scale as losses caused directly by the virus.

Experts also fear that cholera mortality could far exceed mortality from COVID-19.

Most concerned about the vaccine situation. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that at least 80 million children under the age of one year are at risk of getting diphtheria, polio, and measles after a pandemic in at least 68 countries has suspended vaccination programs.

COVID-19 can also endanger the long-term and multi-billion dollar fight against polio. Thanks to the efforts of doctors, this disease has practically disappeared.

However, coronavirus has suspended mass vaccinations against polio, and the infection may return to where it had long been forgotten.

Pandemic side effects

The executive director of the UN World Food Program (WFP), David Beasley, has warned that the world is on the brink of famine of “biblical” proportions, with 130 million people at risk of starvation and another 135 million already on the brink of famine.

In addition, there is an opinion that global quarantine and further economic upheaval may lead to an increase in the number of deaths from despair, as some people seek salvation in alcohol or resort to suicide.

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Epidemiologist Timothy Roberton and his colleagues at Johns Hopkins University drew attention to the indirect consequences of the pandemic in its early stages.

“We followed the world's response to the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, so we understand how things might play out,” he says.

In particular, scientists are interested in how COVID-19 can affect women and children in low-income countries. They modeled several possible scenarios for the development of the crisis and identified two main reasons for the increase in the number of victims.

The first is a disruption in the health care system. “The reason may be people’s fear of going to doctors. That is, there is a problem of demand,” says Mr. Roberton.

There is also a supply problem - doctors themselves may get sick, they may be redirected to treating patients with Covid-19, and there may also be a shortage of medicines.

But that's not all. Scientists predict an increase in malnutrition. Children in families without access to proper nutrition are more vulnerable to infectious diseases.

So, in a worst-case scenario—if health services were cut by 50% and malnutrition rates increased by the same 50%—more than a million children and 56700 mothers would die.

Most babies will die from pneumonia and dehydration as a result of diarrhea, while mortality in women is likely to be related to complications during pregnancy or childbirth.

Add to this those who are threatened with hunger, and we get a pretty significant figure.

The UN World Food Program helps almost 100 million people every day, and for about 30 million it is the only way to survive.

According to the organization, without its support, 300 thousand people would die of hunger every day. And this does not include those who have only recently become impoverished due to a pandemic.

Not only is 130 million people on the verge of starvation because of the coronavirus, it threatens donations from donor countries that the World Food Program relies on.

“If countries can't provide the funding they expect, we're going to have a really big crisis,” says Jane Howard, head of communications at WFP.

Howard explains that, contrary to stereotypes about hungry people from charitable films of the 90s living in the most remote parts of sub-Saharan Africa, hunger today affects cities the most. This is where a pandemic can hit people hardest.

“People in villages may have a city or a cow that can produce milk,” she says. — They have a small food supply. Whereas city residents are completely dependent on market prices.”

Unskilled workers, rickshaw drivers, and builders are now at risk.

Age and more

There is another reason why in many countries more people can die from collateral damage than from the virus itself. This is age. It is known that the most vulnerable are older people. Among them, the highest mortality rate.

On the other hand, low-income countries tend to have young populations. In the “youngest” country in the world - Niger, in West Africa - the average age of the population is only 15,2 years. For this reason, only 19 people died here from COVID-254.

In Italy, on the contrary, the average age is 45 years. It has one of the highest death rates from coronavirus.

As for the high mortality from coronavirus, it still remains a subject of debate. Some scientists believe that the virus is not a direct cause of the current mass deaths.

For example, it is known that a new virus kills older people more often. But it is the elderly who account for the highest percentage of mortality from other seasonal or respiratory diseases, such as norovirus or pneumonia.

It is believed that even in rich countries, the number of indirect deaths from COVID-19 may in the long run exceed the number of direct deaths.

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Let's take cancer for example. The pandemic has put on pause most of the work aimed at reducing the level of cancer and mortality from it - from cervical smears to breast screening. For some people this will have fatal consequences.

“Cancer can’t wait,” says Sarah Giome, director of early detection and cancer research at Cancer Research UK, a UK charity that funds cancer research. “The effectiveness of cancer treatment depends on timely diagnosis.”

In some countries, cancer screening programs have been temporarily stopped from quarantine. As a result, those patients who have already been diagnosed with cancer are at risk of starting treatment late.

Economic implications

Economists argue that a recession is coming, and is expected to be the largest since the Great Depression.

That's why many health care organizations, large and small, are relying on donations from private donors and the public—as a weakening economy could set their work and research back many years.

So what can be done to minimize the indirect effects of Covid-19?

Jane Howard called the steps that WFP Resident Economist suggests.

These cover a wide range of initiatives, from helping governments provide social protection (such as free meals for students even when schools are closed) to supporting supply chains and removing trade barriers.

“Small things can have a big impact,” she says. “For example, if truck drivers who carry out international transport have to undergo quarantine, then the supply chain is completely disrupted. We therefore ask southern African governments to support their drivers by guaranteeing their right to transport.”

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