US Aviation Administration: Boeing 737 MAX could crash 15 more times and kill thousands of passengers

Internal calculations made by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) after the first crash of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft showed that the aircraft could crash a total of 15 times during its life, writes Business Insider.

Фото: Depositphotos

A forecast made before the second catastrophe prompted the cessation of flights of this model aircraft around the world, will mean about 3500 deaths.

The information became publicly available when the documents setting out the forecast were made public as part of the House Transportation Committee meeting.

This figure is based on an internal analysis by the FAA after the Lion Air disaster in October 2018, which killed 189 people.

FAA calculations showed that the Lion Air plane crash occurred during the approximately 136th flight of the liner.

Based on this number, combined with the life expectancy of the aircraft (maximum 45 years), there will most likely be 15 accidents, the document says.

Depending on the configuration of the MAX and the completeness of the flight, the aircraft can accommodate up to 230 people.

On the subject: Six months without Boeing 737 MAX: what has changed in the industry and what passengers should prepare for

Business Insider estimates showed that if the MAX suffered from 15 disasters in which all passengers on a full plane died, about 3450 people could die in addition to those killed in the Lion Air plane crash.

According to the Wall Street Journal, which first reported the publication of the document, 15 MAX fatal crashes would be “roughly comparable” to the total number of fatal crashes by five other Boeing aircraft over the past 30 years: 747, 757 767, 777 and 787 .

“The FAA was not able to ask the right questions and was unable to adequately question the answers the agency received from Boeing,” said committee chairman Peter DeFasio, committee chairman at a five-hour hearing.

“I don’t know why this plane didn’t stop flying after the analysis was carried out,” DeFasio wondered.

“Our investigation revealed that many of the FAA's technical experts and security inspectors believe that FAA management often advocates for Boeing and not for public safety,” he continued.

On the subject: In Boeing found a new marriage in the aircraft model 737 MAX

Stephen Dixon, FAA Administrator, described the number of predicted accidents as "an unacceptable level of risk."

“We must take measures to reduce this risk,” he added, before insisting that “the system is not broken.”

Not convinced

Massachusetts Institute of Technology statistics professor Arnold Barnett questioned FAA's assumptions and logic, writes Forbes. “Given that their calculation clearly assumes that no changes in the system [are] related to the Lion Air accident, I cannot understand their rationale. If they thought there were enough warnings for the pilots to counteract the erroneous deployment of MCAS, then why did they plan 15 future disasters? ”

The FAA said it followed a standard procedure. According to a statement dated December 12: “... The FAA's Corrective Action Review Board relied on a scientific risk assessment tool called the Risk Assessment Methodology for Transport Aircraft (TARAM). TARAM weighs a number of factors and is used solely to help us quantify risk. ”

“The FAA used TARAM, as well as information about the ongoing investigation into the Boeing 737 MAX accident in Indonesia, to justify the agency’s immediate decision to issue the Emergency Airworthiness Directive (EAD) on November 7, 2018 ... which will remind pilots of important procedures for quick stabilization correction,” explained in the FAA.

The FAA suggested that EAD would be effective because the previous crew that crashed the crashed Lion Air could (after a very panic fight) prevent the MCAS system from crashing the plane. However, the crew flying the same plane the next day, the Lion Air 610, was unable to cope with the MCAS misfire.

The FAA concluded that the “control risk” (737 MAX crashes again if this EAD is released) was 1% (one in 100 flights). This means that if the FAA had reported this information to the pilots, one of the 100 flight crews would still be wrong.

The FAA suggested that if Boeing could repair the MCAS system within 200 days with a fleet of 300 MAX aircraft that were still flying, the risk would remain lower - 2% of the threshold level at which the FAA could ground the aircraft.

Boeing said it disagreed with the FAA’s analyzes and conclusions, and its own TARAM analysis was consistent with the FAA’s findings, and the November message to the pilots about how to quickly adjust the stabilizer deflection during acceleration “was fully consistent with the FAA’s analysis and the established process.”

Barnett refuted the FAA analysis: “Look: over the course of a two-year period, the number of MAXs averaged around 200. There were two fatal MAX failures that killed everyone on board. In fact, this is once a year with a fleet of 200 aircraft. However, TARAM says that with the number of vessels at 4800, accidents will occur on average once every three years (15,4 over 45 years). ”

Barnett emphasized that "the evidence available confirms a much worse risk assessment." According to his calculations, “4800 is 24 times 200, so [FAA assumption of one crash per year] at 200 means 24 failures per year at 4800 or 72 every three years, and not one.”

It remains unclear when the 737 MAX will again be able to fly, as the FAA continues to evaluate changes made to MCAS, the software on the MAX, which caused two plane crashes.

The 737 MAX is expected to return in 2020. Many airlines that operated the aircraft removed it from their flight schedule at least until March.

As wrote earlier ForumDaily:

• On March 10th, a Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8 flying from Addis Ababa to Nairobi, crashed 60 km east of the capital of Ethiopia. The crash claimed the lives of 157 people, among whom were citizens of 35 countries, including three Russians.
• This disaster was the second crash of this type of aircraft in six months - at the end of October 2018, the same “Boeing” Indonesian company Lion Air fell into the Java Sea shortly after departure from Jakarta airport. Killed all 189 people on board.
• Immediately after the disaster in Ethiopia many countries have suspended flights Boeing 737 MAX 8.
• The latest flights of the family 737 MAX 8 suspended the USA.
• Ethiopian Transport Minister Dagmavit Moges said that the “black boxes” of the crashed 10 March Boeing 737 MAX 8 speak about "Obvious similarities" with the crash of the aircraft of the same model in Indonesia in October 2018. The company does not agree with this.
• Many pilots who had to drive a Boeing 737 MAX crashed in Ethiopia versed in controlling this aircraft model via iPad tablets.

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