Bloomberg: As soon as you think about Putin, he has already won

Is President Vladimir Putin strong or weak? And what is Russia - a paper tiger, or can it growl? This suddenly became a hot topic for discussion among experts on Russia. It is rather interesting to follow the course of these discussions, but at the same time they bring on painful feelings, as it becomes clear with what success the Russian leader manages to achieve selfish goals.

Brandon Valeriano from the University of Glasgow and Ryan Maness from Northeastern University began a discussion on April 30 in the pages of Foreign Affairs magazine. Claiming that “Putin is not as strong as he may seem.” They said Russia had achieved little by interfering in Ukraine, selling weapons to Iran, using energy exports to pressure countries in Eastern Europe or waging cyberwar against its global competitors.

“Giving Russia the opportunity to pursue its regional interests has produced results that are contrary to its own goals,” Valeriano and Maness wrote. “Therefore, rushing to try to do something to repel the posed Russian threat would be unwise. Lasting international stability despite Russia's use of force could be achieved through continued support of Western allies and investment in alternative energy and cyber defense rather than offensive cyber capabilities."

In the end, they proposed to act in relation to Putin, as in judo: to use against him what he considers his advantage, and then it will become clear that he is weak.

This provoked an irritated reaction from Sergei Aleksashenko, the former First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, who could not be counted among Putin’s supporters. He warned that one should not underestimate the master of the Kremlin.

“Putin seems to believe that Russia, which has less soft power than the West, can use hard power to get what it wants in the modern world,” Aleksashenko wrote. “It would be wrong to hope that he will not covet the territorial integrity of another country in Europe or Asia, or will not interfere with the West’s actions regarding Iran, Syria or North Korea.”

Then Pavel Baev from the Institute for Peace Studies in Oslo joined the discussion. According to him, the Russian economy continues to fall and is still far from the bottom, but the country's military power is declining.

“Putin knows all the unsavory secrets of the Kremlin with its constant squabbles and ill-gotten fortunes, and he knows that he, the Kremlin, cannot be trusted without limit,” Baev said. “Therefore, Putin’s supreme power is much more vulnerable than it might seem.”

According to Baev, Putin is only trying to use the remnants of his military superiority to maintain power. Although he did not agree with Aleksashenko on the question of the relative strength of Russia, he advised the West to deal with Putin more harshly.

On Wednesday two more participants joined the discussion. Amanda Taub has published a large article on the Vox news portal based on conversations with critics of Putin. According to her, the Russian president is not sure that he will be able to retain power. A graduate student at Columbia University, Maria Snegovaya, wrote an article in which she emphasized that Putin is far from being broken and “probably will bark again.”

There are two depressing points in this discussion. First, the almost universal mention of Russia with Putin. This in itself speaks of Putin’s strength; he managed to make people hostile against him identify him with the country he controls. It is possible that in the elections, Putin’s opponents will be able to lower his apparent popularity (the level of which is already close to 90%). But the fact remains that many people now share his obsessive fear of an ecumenical conspiracy against Russia, and he manages to pretend to be the best defender of the country.

Secondly, all these articles have one common unpleasant feature: Russia, weak or strong, with or without Putin, is considered hostile and dangerous. The Kremlin dictator in any case causes fear, whether it is cornered or ready to cause chaos on the whole planet. This perception of Putin is another proof that he possesses some special soft power, he evokes a sense of danger and insecurity, and this plays into his hands.

On Wednesday, the BRICS summit (a small group of countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization began in the Russian city of Ufa. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and leaders of other non-West countries came to meet with Putin.

“This is compensation for a year and a half of the diplomatic blockade, because friends and subordinates are banned from entering Western countries for canceling the G-8 summit in Sochi,” Alexander Gabuev wrote from the Carnegie Moscow Center. This event also points to the enormous size and geographical significance of Russia: with or without Putin, the country itself is protected from attempts to isolate it and sluggishly reacts to any aggressive attacks.

Both tactics of the West make Putin stronger, because in the eyes of his country's population he is right. Even in Europe there are those who consider him the leader of most of the planet except America. And here we need a more verified approach. The West needs to find people in Russia who are able to rule the country after Putin. They probably do not belong to the discredited opposition and it will be difficult to talk with them. But contact should be made with them and find points of contact.

The West also needs to find a way to prove to ordinary Russians that he is not going to destroy their country. It may seem that easing the visa regime and measures to intensify trade as a response to Putin’s aggression is contrary to common sense, but Putin is strong only as long as people believe in his words about the hostile West. Developing a policy that would serve the benefit of the Russians, and not the Putin regime, is not an easy task. But simple solutions only contribute to the freezing of the conflict and strengthen, in essence, a weak regime, which, in order to survive, needs external enemies.