Belarus creates a joint grouping of troops with Russia: how this can threaten Ukraine

Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko recently announced the creation of a joint Russian-Belarusian military grouping on the territory of his country. After that, there were many rumors that the Russian command was going to repeat the attack on Ukraine from the north. What could be the scenarios for the development of events, the publication said Meduza.

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The Ukrainian authorities seem to share such concerns. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky even asked the GXNUMX countries to send observers to the border with Belarus. They will have to prevent provocations so that Belarus cannot find a “reason” for entering the war with Ukraine on the side of Russia.

What kind of grouping is Lukashenka planning to create?

Nothing is clear yet, but on 10 October Lukashenka stated that:

• the basis of the “regional grouping” will be the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus;
• there will be few Russian troops, but "it will not be one thousand people";
• the grouping is needed in order to prevent “strike from the territory of Ukraine”, about the preparation of which Lukashenka allegedly received information “through unofficial channels”.

But so far there is no evidence that such a grouping is actually formed.

Lukashenka said that the creation of the group began "two days ago", that is, on October 8.

However, local activists say that the activity of the Belarusian armed forces is no different from the usual one. In addition, there is no evidence of the redeployment of large forces of the RF Armed Forces to the country.

What are the versions explaining Lukashenka's statement

Version number 1. Verbal intervention designed to distract the Ukrainian command from other fronts

Lukashenka has already used a similar trick, but without much success.

At the beginning of the invasion, Russian troops, aviation and missile brigades operated independently from the territory of Belarus, and the Belarusian army only pretended to prepare for hostilities in Ukraine, probably in order to stretch the Ukrainian defenses in the north of the country.

In early April, Russian units were withdrawn from the territory of the country and transferred to the Donbass, but Lukashenka continued to say that a certain unified Russian-Belarusian group was operating in Belarus. But then they did not really believe him.

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It is possible that this time the creation of a "grouping" will look more believable. Operationally (albeit informally) the armed forces of Belarus are subordinate to the Western Military District (ZVO). The troops of the district just in recent weeks left the combat zone in the north of Donbass and in the Kharkiv region, where they suffered very heavy losses in battles and retreats near Balakleya, Izyum and Kupyansk.

It is likely that now many units of the district will be sent for restoration and replenishment. It can be assumed that part of this process will take place on the territory of Belarus, where the troops of the Western Military District deployed last winter and have prepared bases. Only such a deployment of large Russian forces in Belarus can force Kyiv to divert troops from other fronts, where it is preparing new offensives.

Version No. 2. Creation of a "group" - a cover for the deployment of Russian aviation, missile brigades and drones in Belarus

On October 10, the RF Armed Forces launched massive missile strikes on the west and north of Ukraine. Some of the strikes were carried out by Geran-2 kamikaze drones (Iranian production) from the territory of Belarus.

Most likely, Russia will continue to wage a “war of attrition” by destroying the infrastructure of Ukraine.

In this case, the Russian Federation cannot do without the use of Belarusian territory. Then it can be assumed that the basis of the “grouping” will be the aviation and missile units of the Russian army, and the Belarusian Armed Forces will cover their deployment.

Version number 3. The grouping is being created for the future, in which the Russian command sees the spread of the war beyond the borders of Ukraine and the escalation of the conflict with NATO countries

The Kremlin may need an expanded military presence in Belarus in the event of a military escalation with the West caused by the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons by the RF Armed Forces.

Version number 4. Russia really plans to attack the north or west of Ukraine again in the future

The upcoming large-scale offensive from the territory of Belarus to Ukraine is one of the least likely scenarios for several reasons.

The Kremlin does not have the strength to do this, and besides, the offensive is limited by the geography of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border: in February and March, Russian troops were unable to organize the supply of the group to the north and west of Kyiv due to the exclusion zone - a swampy area with a small number of roads and a large number of water barriers.

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There is another option for an offensive from the Brest region along the western border of Ukraine in order to cut it off from supplies from Europe. But such an operation requires huge forces, which are inaccessible to the Kremlin even after mobilization.

In addition, the army of Belarus will definitely not help the Kremlin in such an offensive. Moreover, so far it looks more like that the Russian command is planning not to strengthen the ally for the future offensive, but to weaken it: Belarusian weapons and ammunition are being transferred to Russia and Crimea.

Why the army of Belarus is unlikely to help Russia in the offensive

The army of Belarus (in the form in which it exists now) is traditionally very weak. In terms of numbers (65 people), saturation with modern weapons, defense spending, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus correspond to the level of the armed forces of Armenia and are inferior to the Ukrainian army by an order of magnitude.

Participation of the army of Belarus in hostilities is possible only after mobilization, which should double its strength.

But even after mobilization, it will be rather weak: organizationally subordinate to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, since it does not even have its own structures necessary for waging war (for example, a unified command of ground forces).

Despite the annual joint exercises with the Russian Armed Forces, the armed forces of Belarus do not have units ready for battle; they have not conducted exercises in recent years involving forces larger than a battalion (from 400 to 800 people).

Modern weapons (including our own production) are very few in number. So, in the Belarusian army there are fewer MLRS "Polonaise" of its own production than in the army of Azerbaijan.

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