American intelligence called the main threats 2019 of the year

29 January 2019, the US intelligence community released its latest Worldwide Threat Assessment report, published annually and open to the public.

Фото: Depositphotos

The 42-page document jointly produced the 17 intelligence services of the United States, including the CIA, the FBI, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, the State Department and others. It presents an analysis of the most important global and regional threats that this year may pose serious challenges for the United States, as well as for the whole world.

NV talks about the context in which the report mentions Ukraine, what troubles Washington is expecting from Russia, as well as what other global threats the American intelligence community is paying attention to.

Ukraine

The most significant part of the report that mentions Ukraine is the subsection “Russia and its neighbors,” included in an extensive chapter on the Russian Federation as one of the main threats to the United States in 2019.

“The Kremlin will seek to maintain and expand, where possible, its influence in the countries of the former Soviet Union, which it considers spheres of influence,” is how the authors of the report summarize Moscow’s strategy for the current year.

Conflict in the east

In this context, analysts touch on the topic of the conflict in Donbass: according to the American intelligence community, a major offensive operation by Russian forces, including Russian puppet regimes in the Donbass, or by Ukraine, “is possible from an operational point of view, but is unlikely in 2019 if only one side does not realize that the other is seriously challenging the status quo.”

Kerch crisis

At the same time, the United States expects an increase in “bilateral tension” in the Black and Azov Seas, “as each side defends its sovereignty and naval potential.”

At the same time, Russia is expected to “continue its military, political and economic campaign to destabilize Ukraine to try to thwart Kyiv’s efforts to integrate into the EU and strengthen ties with NATO.”

Фото: Depositphotos

Russia's interception of Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait and the detention of sailors in November 2018, according to the US intelligence community, "demonstrate Russia's readiness to limit freedom of navigation for Ukraine in the area and to apply political pressure on the country's leadership, especially in the run-up to elections in Ukraine this year." .

Elections in Ukraine

Separately, American analysts point out the risks associated with Russia's intervention in the election of the President of Ukraine in March 2019 of the year and in the autumn parliamentary election campaign.

“Russia is taking steps to influence this election, using a range of tools to take advantage of Kiev’s fragile economy, widespread corruption, cyber vulnerabilities and public discontent in hopes of unseating [Ukrainian President Petro] Poroshenko and installing a less anti-Russian parliament,” the report’s authors write. .

They also describe the domestic political situation on the eve of the Ukrainian elections and believe that the long list of presidential candidates, high levels of distrust in political elites and the absence of a clear leader in the race “could provide Poroshenko’s rivals (as well as lesser-known candidates and political newcomers) with the opportunity to count on the support of the Ukrainian electorate, largely undecided [with their choice].”

Cybersecurity

The US intelligence community also mentions Ukraine as an example of the victim of large-scale cyber attacks from Russia - and recalls that such a threat will remain in 2019 for the United States and other countries.

“Russia has the capability to conduct cyberattacks in the United States that result in localized, temporary destructive effects on critical infrastructure—such as the disruption of power grids for at least several hours—similar to the attacks carried out in Ukraine in 2015-2016,” the report says. .

“Moscow is taking note of our vital infrastructure with the long-term goal of being able to cause significant damage,” the authors of the document summarize.

Russia

Risk analysis, one way or another connected with Russia, occupies the lion’s share of the Worldwide Threat Assessment 2019 report.

Brotherhood of Beijing and Moscow

In particular, the United States is concerned about the increasingly strong ties between Moscow and Beijing, noting the similarity of their interests and the similarity of these countries' foreign policy towards Washington. This geopolitical alliance has been identified as one of the main threats to the United States in 2019, already in the introduction to the report.

“Russia and China seek to shape the international system [of relations] and regional security, influencing the politics and economics of states in all regions of the world, especially in their “backyards” [areas of interest and influence],” the document says.

Its authors also emphasize that today Russia and China are the closest they have been in any decade since the mid-1950s. And their relationship is likely to strengthen in 2019, “as some of their interests and threat perceptions overlap,” especially regarding alleged U.S. “interventionism” or Washington’s efforts to promote Western human rights and democratic values.

Putin's strategy

According to the country's intelligence services, all the more serious problems for the United States will be Russia's efforts to expand its global military, commercial and energy presence, as well as attempts to build partnerships with allies and with US opponents.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has the tools to deal with challenges to his leadership and is likely to pursue an assertive, opportunistic foreign policy aimed at advancing Russian interests beyond its borders and challenging U.S. influence,” analysts predict.

Militarization of the Russian Federation

Moscow regards military power as the key to protecting its vital interests and as a pillar of foreign policy, the report’s authors recall. At the same time, Russia's armed forces are being modernized more and more, gaining the opportunity to be involved in all military areas and supporting the world's largest nuclear arsenal.

“We estimate that in 2019 Russia will continue to modernize its entire military, but will make the greatest progress in the capabilities of its air defense forces, submarines and electronic warfare systems,” the authors of the document write.

Other global threats

The report of the American intelligence community, in addition to a detailed analysis of regional threats to the United States by country and region of the world, also contains a list of global risks for 2019 year.

Among them are, in particular, the following:

Destruction of the established world order

The system of international relations that developed after World War II is under increasing pressure against the background of the constant threat of the proliferation of cyber attacks and weapons of mass destruction, as well as due to regional conflicts, the authors of the report warn.

“Worrisome trends include increased online efforts by hostile states and organizations to influence elections in the United States and abroad, as well as the use of chemical weapons by such countries,” the document says.

Migration crisis

In 2019, migration is likely to continue to fuel social and intergovernmental tensions throughout the world, predicts the American intelligence community.

Separately, the report also mentions “growing political turbulence in many regions” and “the rise of nationalism in Europe.”

European political challenges

The authors of the document list several factors due to which, in 2019, the role of the European Union as a geopolitical ally of the United States may significantly weaken.

Among such events are the UK's withdrawal from the EU scheduled for 29 in March 2019, as well as elections to the European Parliament at the end of May, which will lead to a subsequent change of top EU leaders.

“This will limit the ability of the EU and [EU] leaders to resist growing efforts by Russia and China to separate them [EU states] from each other and from the United States,” US intelligence experts fear.

Terrorism

Jihadist groups in dozens of countries around the world threaten the local and regional interests of the United States, despite the fact that in recent years, many of them have suffered serious setbacks, the document says.

However, some of these groups still intend to strike at the United States. Leading ideologists of jihad and relevant media platforms continue to call for attacks on the United States and to justify such actions, reminds American intelligence.

In addition, the conflicts in Iraq and Syria have “resulted in the emergence of significant numbers of fighters with combat experience, attack skills, and the ability to enhance the capabilities of terrorist groups,” US intelligence warns.

Its experts also recognize that the jihadist groups in selected regions of Africa and Asia in 2018 have expanded their capabilities in the fight against US regional interests and in creating networks of like-minded people in neighboring countries.

Cybersecurity

Two major chapters of the report in the section on global risks are devoted to threats related to cyber attacks: Cybersecurity и Online operations to intervene in elections and influence.

“Our adversaries and strategic competitors will increasingly use cyber capabilities, including cyber espionage, cyber attacks and other methods of influence, to gain political, economic and military advantage over the United States, its allies and partners,” the US intelligence community warns.

Analysts say that countries such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are increasingly using cyber operations to attack both people's minds and technology — using methods such as stealing information, trying to influence public opinion or attacking critical infrastructure.

Russia and China will remain at the forefront of such attacks, they are convinced of the United States.

In particular, Washington expects attempts to influence the US presidential election in 2020 - “as an opportunity to advance the interests” of each country.

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