Airbus and Boeing refused to work with Russia: this puts almost the entire civil aviation of the country at risk

Russian Deputy Transport Minister Igor Chalik is considering nationalizing Airbus and Boeing aircraft after the companies refused to work with Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine. Writes about it Meduza.

Photo: Shutterstock

According to the source, the Ministry of Transport has not yet made a final decision. What happens next will be known by the end of the week.

“The nationalization of the fleet is the most realistic scenario, there are no other options for maintaining efficiency right now,” one of the sources said. He noted that this issue should be resolved by the state, since carriers themselves cannot detain aircraft if leasing companies require them to be returned.

If the authorities decide in favor of buying out the planes, then Russia will have to discuss this issue with the US and the EU.

In response to a question about the options for keeping foreign aircraft in Russia and the possibility of their nationalization, the Federal Air Transport Agency said: "The issue is under evaluation."

With the nationalization of the airliners, it will be possible to fly on them for no more than six months, since the sanctions also affect the supply of spare parts, said Alexander Fridland, director of the scientific center for economic monitoring of the State Research Institute of Civil Aviation.

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“Then there will be a shortage of spare parts, the planes will be cannibalized (taken apart for parts),” he added.

Friedland said that it would be more effective for Russia to invest in the restoration of Soviet and Russian aircraft - An-24/26, Tu-134/154, Yak-40/42 and Il-96.

Sanctions

Boeing said it had "paused essential operations" in Russia, where it also has research and engineering centers. Reuters.

Airbus said it was halting the supply of parts and services to Russian airlines, but was also considering whether its Moscow engineering center could continue to provide services to local customers.

Sanctions against Russia, which calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation", will have more serious consequences than sanctions against Iran or North Korea, given the size of its market.

“With Western lessors also seeking to take over aircraft operated by Russian carriers, the Russian aviation sector is now in a position similar to North Korea and Iran — and similar to what it was under Soviet rule,” wrote Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard.

How sanctions will affect the activities of Russian airlines

Boeing and Airbus have stopped supplying spare parts and support to Russian airlines. Due to sanctions, Russia needs to return a large number of leased aircraft with foreign registration, writes Simple flying.

According to the latest data, Russian airlines have 1003 passenger and cargo aircraft, both active and inactive (that is, in storage or under repair). Of these, approximately 706 belong to Airbus and Boeing, that is, seven out of ten are manufacturers. About 24 airlines were affected by the sanctions, including Aeroflot, S7, Rossiya, UTAir, Nordwind and Pobeda.

But it is not known how many spare parts carriers already have, whether they can get more from other sources, and how soon Airbus and Boeing aircraft will actually be used.

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In March 2022, there were approximately 49 domestic scheduled flights (takeoffs and landings combined) in Russia. Of these, Boeing and Airbus have 821, or more than two thirds (33%):

• Airbus - 16;
• Boeing - 16.

Airbus and Boeing have a huge stake, and the implications for Russian aviation if other foreign manufacturers impose a ban are clear. It also shows that Russia cannot return to its large domestic market, helped by its 145+ million people and its incredibly large and vast geographic area as international markets become increasingly closed.

Domestic flights on Russian vehicles make up "only" 8930 flights, that is, less than one in five. A natural question arises: if necessary, how many of the withdrawn aircraft are fit or can become flying?

Airbus/Boeing aircraft are particularly dominant in Moscow, helped by Aeroflot's large Sheremetyevo hub and the fact that the Russian capital of over 20 million people accounts for the lion's share of the country's flights. Indeed, the two manufacturers account for 83% of all domestic flights from Moscow, 16 percentage points higher than the national average.

If things continue at the same pace or worsen, and if they persist for a significant period of time, it is quite possible that Russia will become a second Iran or Venezuela - with old non-working aircraft and no way to replace them.

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