The US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end the war: Trump ordered the lifting of the naval blockade of Iran.

On June 15, the US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and extend the current, highly volatile ceasefire. This could bring much-needed oil and natural gas back to the global market, according to Associated Press.

The details of the agreement have not yet been disclosed. Tehran has made it clear that implementation will begin only after its signing. Pakistan, the key mediator, announced that the signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. If the agreement is implemented, it could lead to an end to the war that has claimed thousands of lives across the Middle East (including among Iran's top leaders) and triggered a massive energy crisis.

However, it is already clear that reaching an agreement will not be easy. Israel's ongoing military operations against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon nearly derailed the negotiations: on June 14, Israel launched airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut.

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A separate issue is the timeframe. The parties have only 60 days to resolve the issue of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpiles and its nuclear program. It took years to reach agreement on these issues under the 2015 nuclear deal. During his first term, Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement, which ultimately led to escalating tensions and war.

"Congratulations to all!" he wrote on social media on June 14, Sunday, the day he celebrated his 80th birthday. He then added: "I hereby fully authorize the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and simultaneously authorize the immediate lifting of the naval blockade imposed by the United States."

Trump later clarified that the strait would only open after the agreement was signed on June 19.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the agreement on state television, but emphasized that Tehran would only begin implementing it after its signing. He said the agreement was the result of negotiations with Qatar, which also acted as a mediator.

Israel, which insists on a free hand against Hezbollah, controls southern Lebanon and has expanded military operations into areas where its troops have not operated for about 25 years, did not immediately comment on the situation.

Following news of the agreement, the price of Brent crude fell by more than $4 per barrel and Asian stock markets rose.

Pakistan, which played a key mediating role, was the first to announce the agreement. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that "both sides have declared an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon." It remains unclear, however, whether Israel, which relies on US support but has been waging war against its adversaries since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has agreed to this.

He added that mediators would hold meetings this week to "lay the groundwork for technical negotiations."

According to two senior Pakistani officials, further negotiations on outstanding issues, including Iran's nuclear program, will continue for the next 60 days. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to make public statements. If an agreement is not reached within that time, the deadline may be extended.

Iranian state television, citing the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council, said the war "on all fronts will end immediately and completely this night" and the US naval blockade "will be lifted immediately and completely."

Qatari mediators left Tehran after 17 hours of negotiations, according to a source familiar with the discussions who asked not to be named. The source added that separate preparatory meetings with each side will be held in Doha this week.

It's still unclear who exactly will sign the agreement on behalf of Iran. US Vice President J.D. Vance stated on Fox News that the White House is still deciding on the composition of the delegation: "I certainly plan to be there, but it's possible the president himself will come."

In the US, discontent is already evident among Republicans. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham called Vance "the architect of the agreement."

"I am somewhat concerned that Iran's vision of this agreement differs from what the US negotiating team is saying," he wrote.

Congress also intends to closely monitor the agreement. New York Congressman Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, stated, "We've seen time and again: war doesn't change the Iranian regime."

The interim agreements have already come under intense scrutiny. The first blow in this war resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was succeeded by his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. He has not appeared in public since the beginning of the war, but his approval was essential for the agreement to be approved.

Shortly before the agreement was announced, internal tensions in Iran increased, with authorities warning that internal disagreements were weakening Tehran's negotiating position.

Essentially, the agreement returns the situation to the pre-war status, but with an important caveat: Iran has demonstrated its ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This route is critical for the supply of oil, gas, and related products, including fertilizers, and its effective closure has already had a significant impact on the global economy.

Even if the agreement is implemented, it will take several months for oil and gas supplies to recover to levels sufficient to meet global demand, experts say. Shipping and insurance companies must ensure that the agreements are truly honored.

At the same time, Iran retains an arsenal of ballistic missiles and stockpiles of highly enriched uranium sufficient to create several nuclear weapons if the country decides to take that path.

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Tehran insists its nuclear program is peaceful and has not stated its willingness to give up enriched uranium, which is believed to be stored underground at three nuclear facilities severely damaged by US strikes last year.

The United States is seeking the removal of this uranium from Iran as part of the agreement. Russia has offered to host it, but Tehran insists it intends to keep the uranium.

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