Storm of the Century Heading for the US: Forecasters Predict Flooding, Hail, Tornadoes

Rain and thunderstorms that have hit the central and eastern United States could develop into major flooding. The storm could reach its full potential this week. A series of severe thunderstorms is approaching, bringing with them the risk of flooding that could threaten the lives of millions of people in the central and eastern parts of the country, according to CNN.

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A new wave of bad weather is hot on the heels of the previous one. The storms and thunderstorms that swept through the central states on March 30 and killed seven people have now engulfed most of the East Coast on March 31. Some areas that were already hit by these deadly storms and destructive storms in mid-March will be hit again. They could be hit by new powerful thunderstorms on the night of April 2-3.

April is traditionally the time when severe thunderstorm season kicks into high gear. But this year, the destructive weather is more severe than usual. From January through March, storms have already caused more than 3200 reports of tornadoes, hail, and hurricane-force winds across the country.

Storm activity this week will add to this impressive statistic.

On the subject: Tornadoes and strong winds hit the southern US, with fatalities reported

Severe storms to begin April 2

The storm, which originated in the Rocky Mountains, will begin to gain strength as it reaches the Great Plains on the afternoon of April 2. What follows will leave many with a sense of déjà vu.

The northern, colder portion of the storm will turn the Dakotas and Minnesota into a snow zone by the evening of April 2, while thunderstorms will develop further south.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) warns that the storms will last for more than one day.

A broad area from Texas to Iowa is under a Level 2 severe thunderstorm warning on April XNUMX, according to the SPC. A higher Level XNUMX warning is in place for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri.

A tornado warning is in effect until early morning April 2 for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, the Storm Prediction Center said.

Thunderstorms will begin to develop in isolated areas of the Great Plains on the evening of April 2 and may intensify as the storms spread throughout the night. They will then impact parts of the Midwest overnight before moving east.

Any of these storms can produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, but the most unstable ones can be especially dangerous. In Kansas and Oklahoma, some storms are capable of producing powerful tornadoes (rated EF2 or higher) and large hail ranging in size from quarters to golf balls.

The main threat of severe weather on April 2 will be concentrated in the Great Plains.

More than four million people in parts of the Mississippi Valley will be under a Level 42 of five severe thunderstorm risk scale. The broader Level XNUMX zone will cover more than XNUMX million people from Texas to the Great Lakes, including major cities such as Dallas, Chicago and Indianapolis.

Thunderstorms in the Midwest can persist after sunrise, but their behavior in the morning hours will determine how severe the threat will be throughout the day. For example, if they linger throughout the day in Chicago, it will prevent the city from developing more severe storms later in the day. However, if skies clear early, the metropolis will be vulnerable to a second, more powerful wave of thunderstorms later in the evening.

Some thunderstorms will persist through the morning of April 2 in parts of Kansas and Missouri and will likely strengthen as they move east into the Mississippi Valley by midday.
By midday April 2, additional storms will begin to form in the Mississippi Valley, some of which SPC predicts could develop "explosively." By evening, severe thunderstorms could stretch from Louisiana and Arkansas to Michigan. A few more storms could develop in Texas overnight.

Any of these storms could produce damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, with the greatest potential for strong and long-lasting tornadoes expected from Arkansas to Indiana and Ohio.

Many of these tornadoes will occur after sunset, making them especially dangerous. A 2022 study found that nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be fatal as daytime ones.

The most powerful storms in parts of the Mississippi Valley can produce hail the size of baseballs.

But the thunderstorms will bring more than just wind and hail: the heavy rains will create a new, more lingering threat: flooding.

Rainfall could trigger 'flood of the century'

An atmospheric barrier caused by the frozen front will send a powerful stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico directly into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, leading to multi-day, life-threatening flooding.

The rainfall could trigger the "flood of the century" in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Mississippi, the National Weather Service warns.
Level 3 flood risk, a four-point scale, is expected to hit parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys on April 5, 6 and XNUMX, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
A rare Level 3 flood warning is issued for April 4 from far northeastern Arkansas to western Kentucky. The importance of such warnings is hard to overstate. They are issued on fewer than 80% of days each year, but they account for more than 36% of flood damage and XNUMX% of flood-related deaths, according to research from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

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"The situation is becoming increasingly serious, with the potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding that could last for several days," the center warned.

Once the rains start on April 2, each day that passes will increase the flood threat. The soil will become increasingly saturated with water until it can no longer absorb it, and any further precipitation will lead to dangerous flash floods.
Storms bringing 5 to 15 centimeters of rain daily will pass through the same areas over and over again, especially in the area from Arkansas to Indiana.
By Saturday, April 5, areas hit by the strongest storms could receive more than 38 centimeters of rain.

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