In 2032, a huge asteroid capable of destroying an entire city could fall to Earth
An explosion in the sky releasing energy hundreds of times greater than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima; a blinding flash almost as bright as the sun; shock waves capable of obliterating everything for miles around – these are the kinds of things that could happen the consequences of a probable asteroid impact, which astronomers predict in 2032, reports CBS News.
Photo: Petr Bonek | Dreamstime.com
A newly discovered asteroid nearly the size of a football field now has a greater than one percent chance of hitting Earth in about eight years.
Such a collision could destroy an entire city.
Scientists are not panicking yet, but are closely monitoring the situation.
"Our job at this point is to keep an eye on the asteroid, to deploy as many observing tools as possible," said Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society.
(The Planetary Society is a nonprofit organization dedicated to promoting space exploration, research, and technology development for the study of the solar system and extraterrestrial life. It was founded in 1980 by Carl Sagan, Bruce Murray, and Louis Friedman. Headquartered in Pasadena, California. - Note.)
What is known about asteroid 2024 YR4
The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first discovered on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Based on the brightness of this celestial body, astronomers estimate its size to be between 40 and 90 meters in width.
"An asteroid impact of this size with Earth happens on average once every few thousand years and could cause serious damage," the European Space Agency said in a statement.
By New Year's Eve, the object had already come to the attention of Kelly Fast, NASA's acting planetary protection officer.
"Some objects are observed and then disappear from view. This one looked like it would stay for a long time," she explained.
The risk assessment continued to grow, and on January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global planetary defense initiative, issued a memo.
According to the latest calculations from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, is 1,6%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it is a "close approach" requiring the attention of astronomers and the public.
In its memo, IAWN listed likely impact locations in the event of an impact, including the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.
2024 YR4 is on a highly eccentric four-year orbit that passes through the inner planets before hurtling past Mars toward Jupiter.
It is currently moving away from Earth; its next close pass is expected in 2028.
"There is a high probability that this asteroid will not hit Earth, and in the coming months or years the objective probability of a collision will decrease to zero," Betts concluded.
A similar situation occurred in 2004 with the asteroid Apophis, which was initially given a 2,7% chance of colliding with Earth in 2029. However, further observations ruled out the possibility of an impact.
Category "city killer"
The most famous asteroid impact with Earth occurred 66 million years ago, when a 75-kilometer-wide space object caused a global winter that wiped out the dinosaurs and XNUMX% of other species.
Unlike that event, 2024 YR4 is categorized as a "city killer."
"If it explodes over Paris, London or New York, it will effectively destroy the entire city and part of its surrounding area," Betts said.
The best modern analogue is the Tunguska event of 1908, when an asteroid or comet fragment 30–50 meters in size exploded over Siberia, knocking down 80 million trees over an area of 2000 square kilometers.
Like that object, 2024 YR4 is likely to explode in the atmosphere rather than leave a crater on the ground.
"We can calculate the energy... using the mass and the velocity," said Andrew Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
In the case of 2024 YR4, the atmospheric explosion would be equivalent to about eight megatons of TNT, more than 500 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
If the asteroid explodes over the ocean, the consequences will be less significant, but if it explodes near the coast, a tsunami may form.
Time to get ready
The good news, experts point out, is that we have plenty of time to prepare.
Rivkin led the research for NASA's 2022 DART mission, which successfully changed the trajectory of an asteroid using a spacecraft, a strategy known as a "kinetic impact."
The target asteroid posed no threat to Earth, making it an ideal test subject.
"I don't see why it wouldn't work again," he said. The only question is whether major countries would agree to finance such a mission if the threat did not concern their territory.
There are other, more daring ideas.
Lasers could vaporize some of the asteroid by creating thrust and changing its course. It would also be theoretically possible to use a “gravity tractor” — a massive spacecraft that slowly deflects the asteroid using its own gravitational pull.
If all measures prove unsuccessful, time allows authorities to evacuate people from the affected area.
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"Nobody should be afraid of this," Fast assured. "We can detect such objects, make predictions and develop action plans."
However, NASA tracks approaching asteroids and calculates the likelihood of their collision with Earth.
"Most near-Earth objects have orbits that are close to Earth and therefore pose no risk of impact, but a small subset of them, called potentially hazardous asteroids, require special attention," says the website of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which studies near-Earth objects for NASA.
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