35 years ago science fiction writer Isaac Asimov predicted what the world would be like in 2019: what came true

35 years ago, on the eve of 1984 of the year, the Canadian edition of The Star, impressed by George Orwell’s 1984 prophetic dystopia, asked the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to write an article about the prediction that he believes is waiting for humanity in 2019.

Фото: Depositphotos

The year was not chosen by chance. The Orwellian masterpiece was out of print in 1949, 35 years before the period described by the writer. It seemed curious for journalists to find out how our world would change even after 35 years, writes “Life hacker".

Now is the moment when you can check how true the prophecies of Asimov were.

What came true

From Azimov's point of view, mankind on the way to the 2019 year should have been disturbed by three most important thoughts:

1. The likelihood of nuclear war.
2. Mass computerization.
3. The use of outer space.

As for the first point, at the moment when Azimov was asked to predict the future, the world was tense due to the Cold War, when the relationship between the two superpowers, the USSR and the USA, reached a boiling point. The world was on the verge of a catastrophe, but the futurist still chose to remain an optimist.

“If the United States and the Soviet Union continue to cling to each other, it is completely useless to discuss what life will be like in 2019. In this case, only a few of us, our children and grandchildren will remain alive, and I see no reason to describe in detail the global suffering. So let's assume that nuclear the war it won’t,” the writer noted then.

Azimov also predicted surprisingly accurate computerization, although at the beginning of the 1980-s few people believed in the mass development of this sphere. And the science fiction writer made a number of additional conclusions from his prophecy, which today also come true. If you touch this topic in more detail, you get this.

1. Mass Computerization

Her Azimov firmly called the inevitable. In his opinion, by 2019, the society will reach the level when it simply cannot exist without computers to be used both in the economy and industry, and in every home.

“Those countries that lag behind in this regard will suffer so obviously that their governments themselves will begin to demand computerization, just as they demand weapons today,” Azimov argued.

This prophecy has definitely come true: today, there are PCs in almost every home, even in third world countries.

2. The disappearance of some professions

This fact, from the point of view of Asimov, is an inevitable consequence of computerization. But at the same time, not everyone will be pleased.

“Before the Industrial Revolution, the vast majority of humanity was engaged in agriculture and related service work. When industrialization began, the transition from farm to factory was quick and painful. With computerization, the transition from a factory to something new will be even faster and, as a result, even more painful,” the science fiction writer predicted.

It's not even that computers take people jobs away. The need for a whole range of professions will simply disappear: any bureaucracy, any assembly, any mechanical repetitive work will be automated. They will be started by computers and the robots they control, and they will do it more quickly and successfully.

Prediction too come true: before 2019, a whole number of professions had already died, for example, telephone operators and stenographers, and before 2020, dozens of other specialties are expected to disappear from the market. Moreover, as Azimov suggested, this is connected with the automation and development of computer control systems.

3. Change of education concept

The onset of computers and related changes in the labor market, according to the writer, will require fundamental changes in the approach to school (and further) education. First of all, it must be computerized. If, before industrialization, a person could live well without literacy, then in 2019, it would be impossible without the ability to use computers and navigate in a new high-tech world.

Futurist predicted the disappearance of teachers. By the year 2019, computers can replace them, and children will receive education at home - not according to the standard school curriculum, but at an individual pace and in accordance with their own interests.

In general, this prediction can also be considered, if not realized, then actively coming true. Principles of upbringing and education of children dramatically have changedmoreover, more and more parents prefer the so-called distance learning in online schools.

4. Growing environmental problems

“The consequences of human irresponsibility in terms of waste and pollution will become increasingly obvious and intolerable over time. Trying to cope will become more stressful. It is hoped that by 2019, advances in technology will provide us with the tools that will help reverse environmental degradation,” Azimov predicted.

The first half of this forecast has obviously come true: the world's environmental problems are really growing. But from the second, unfortunately, there was a slip: modern scientists could not offer a way out of this crisis.

Фото: Depositphotos

What did not come true, but perhaps still come true

There are other moments in which human society progresses more slowly than an astute science fiction artist expected. Here they are.

1. Robots in every home

Asimov, as the author of the laws of robotics, was confident on the eve of 1984: “A mobile computerized object, also known as a robot, has already penetrated into industry. In the next generation it will penetrate into every home.”

So far this hasn't happened. Unless, of course, we consider robotic vacuum cleaners, smart coffee makers and kettles with Internet access to be full-fledged “mobile computerized objects”.

2. Successful space exploration

According to Azimov, by 2019, mankind with new forces will return to the Moon and even create there a colossal habitable station, whose employees will extract minerals and produce from them building materials necessary for the construction of other objects in space. A science fiction writer also suggested putting global productions into orbit (this would reduce environmental pollution on the planet) and creating a huge space power station for collecting solar energy and transmitting it to Earth.

But it seems that something went wrong.

3. World peace

The need to solve social, educational, environmental, space issues, on which the existence of our civilization directly depends, should make humanity come together.

“Cooperation between nations and groups within nations will increase—not because of a sudden increase in idealism or decency, but because of a cool realization that lack of cooperation means ruin for all,” the writer predicted.

So Azimov believed, predicting even the creation of some kind of world government. Alas, in this matter the legendary science fiction was again too optimistic.

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