The Trump administration believes that ending the war in Ukraine will help weaken China's position.

President Donald Trump has often irritated European allies with his flirtations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and harsh remarks against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But behind this apparent imbalance lies a long-term strategic goal: countering China, according to Politico.

The Trump administration believes that pushing Russia to end the war in Ukraine and actively investing in its economy could eventually change the world order to the detriment of China. The Trump administration is convinced that the greatest geopolitical threat to the United States and the West is not Putin's Russia, but China.

While countering China isn't the only reason the administration is seeking a truce, it explains why, after more than 15 months of fruitless negotiations and numerous threats to withdraw, the president's team—special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner—continues to search for a solution.

On the subject: Russia has rejected Trump's Ukraine peace plan, calling it the creation of an 'axis of war'.

A Trump administration official, who asked to remain anonymous, said finding "a path to closer engagement with Russia" could create "a new balance of power with China that could be very beneficial."

However, many observers believe this plan is unlikely to succeed—at least as long as Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping remain in power. The idea of ​​providing Russia with economic incentives to move closer to the United States is a concern for Kyiv, noted a Ukrainian official who wished to remain anonymous.

"There have been similar attempts before, and they've come to nothing," he noted. "Germany pursued the Ostpolitik, and now Russia is waging the deadliest war in Europe." (This refers to the policy of rapprochement with the USSR that Germany actively pursued in the 1970s. – Approx. Ed.)

According to a Ukrainian official, when it comes to attempts to divide China and Russia, both countries have one common denominator: they hate the United States as a symbol of democracy.

Nevertheless, the strategy is consistent with the administration's broader foreign policy initiatives, partly aimed at containing China's influence. The overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and pressure on the Cuban government are reducing China's influence in the Western Hemisphere. The administration has threatened Panama, which withdrew from Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative a month after Trump took office, and called Peru's agreement with China on the Chancay deep-water port a "warning."

And the strikes on Iran have altered China's oil import potential, as Tehran was expected to supply Beijing with more than 13% of its oil through 2025, according to Reuters. An administration official noted that, thanks to Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, China has been buying oil below market prices, subsidizing consumption "to the tune of more than $100 billion a year over the past several years."

"This was a huge subsidy for China, allowing it to buy oil on the black market sometimes at $30 a barrel cheaper than on the spot market," the source emphasized.

Even amid reports that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran, the US and Russia continue negotiations. Witkoff and Kushner met with Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's top adviser, last week. The Russians called the meeting "productive." Witkoff stated that the talks will continue.

The US National Security Strategy, published in November, devotes significant attention to China, although it often doesn't mention Beijing directly. Many US lawmakers—both Republican and Democratic—consider China the most serious long-term threat to America's global power.

"The United States has long been convinced that cooperation between Russia and China is extremely disadvantageous for us, and we need to find ways to separate them or at least tactically cooperate with the partner that poses a lesser long-term strategic threat," concluded Alexander Gray, Chief of Staff of the National Security Council under Trump during his first term.

Gray, now CEO of the consulting firm American Global Strategies, compared these efforts to the work of former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger, who led President Richard Nixon's visit to China during the Cold War in an attempt to pry Beijing away from the Soviet Union.

A State Department spokesperson previously stated that China's economic ties with Latin American countries pose a "national security threat" to the United States, which the administration is actively combating.

Fred Fleitz, another National Security Council chief of staff under Trump in his first term, noted that the president "pressured Putin to end the war and normalize Russia's relations with the United States and Europe" and wants Russia to return to the G8.

"It's clear that Trump wants to find a way to end the war in Ukraine and peacefully coexist with Russia," said Fleitz, now vice chair for American security at the America First Policy Institute. "But I believe he correctly views the growing alliance between Russia and China as a far greater threat to U.S. and global security than the war in Ukraine, and therefore wants to seek ways to improve relations with Russia in order to weaken or break that alliance."

Others, however, are skeptical. Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the goal of separating Russia and China is "theoretically attractive, but in practice, the partnership between Moscow and Beijing is ironclad."

"History shows this will not lead to serious results," Singleton added. "The likely outcome with Russia is limited tactical cooperation with the US, not a lasting break with Beijing."

China, meanwhile, seeks to maintain Russia as an ally and junior partner. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated: "In an unstable and turbulent world, China-Russia relations have endured despite everything."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted at a broader strategy, saying that "a situation in which Russia remains forever a junior partner to China, doing whatever China deems necessary because of its dependence, is not a good outcome" for Russia, the United States, or Europe.

But Rubio, like an anonymous administration official, noted that completely severing those ties would be extremely difficult.

"I don't know if we'll ever be able to completely distract them from their relationship with the Chinese," Rubio said last February.

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Adam Savit, director of China policy at the America First Policy Institute, argues that “Russia matters on the periphery, but it will not be the decisive factor in the competition between the US and China,” and “the center of gravity is in East Asia.”

"Russia provides China with strategic depth, a friendly border, energy supplies, and a second front in Ukraine, which distracts the West," he explained. "A rapprochement with Russia could complicate China's strategic position, but Russia is currently in decline and is clearly the junior partner in this relationship."

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