Why Nazarbayev left and what will happen next with Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, a unique transfer of power took place in Central Asia. The country's first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, announced his resignation of 19 in March 2019 of the year - after the 30 years of government of an independent republic. This is the first Central Asian leader in the post-Soviet space, who leaves the post of his own free will, that is, not as a result of revolution, and not because of death.

Фото: Depositphotos

For the people of Russia, the departure of Nazarbayev, who seemed eternal, came as a complete surprise. "MedusaI asked the experts how it happened, whether the changes in the neighboring country will become an example for Russia - and what will happen with the whole region now.

Vladimir Zharikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries

Such a transfer of power is not an example for Russia; for Kazakhstan, Russia was an example. Have you forgotten 31 December 1999 of the year? So far, what is happening is similar to the Yeltsin scenario, amended by the Constitution. According to ours - and. about. became the prime minister, according to them - the chairman of the Senate [the upper chamber of the Kazakh parliament]. So far, everything is moving according to the Yeltsin scenario, although a fork in the road is possible: after all, their acting as [Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev] is an outstanding but a diplomat, although he was for about three years the chairman of the government. And I do not rule out that he [Nazarbayev] will select a business manager for the presidency.

Kazakhstan is one of Russia's closest associates, and I think Nazarbayev has thought of a successor who will continue this foreign policy line. Moreover, Nazarbayev is leaving, but not far away: the Security Council, the chairman of the ruling party - here he is insured.

If we talk about the Chinese factor, China certainly makes economic progress in the exploration of the surrounding space, but China has such a feature: it has not yet learned how to convert its economic opportunities into political ones. Its political influence is always an order of magnitude less than economic.

Fedor Krasheninnikov, political scientist

I was born in Alma-Ata and for the first 18 years I was a citizen of Kazakhstan, for some time I was filed by His Majesty Nursultan Abishevich, the President of Kazakhstan, therefore his denial excited me.

I think that Nazarbayev’s resignation has been prepared. Nazarbayev completely controls the entire system of power in Kazakhstan, it is not a spontaneous step and not a step into the abyss. I think that he has a plan known to the entire Kazakhstani elite, in accordance with which the transit of power will take place. And the person who is now appointed as acting president - Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, the speaker of the parliament of the upper house, - should have passed power under the Constitution. This is very important and uncharacteristic for Central Asia, because in the event of the death of [the head of Turkmenistan, Saparmurat] Niyazov and [the president of Uzbekistan Islam] Karimov, power quickly passed to some kind of wrong people, not by the Constitution. Obviously, Nazarbayev decided that everything should be in accordance with the law, especially since he himself is alive and well and remains the current politician. He reserved many posts, including the leadership of the ruling party [“Nur Otan”] and the post of head of the Security Council. In essence, he will control the transit of power, no matter who is de jure led by Kazakhstan. Then, obviously, there will be elections, and we will soon find out who will win them, which means that he will become the successor.

On this occasion there are several different versions, but it will clearly be the person who will ensure the preservation of power of the Nazarbayev clan. Maybe it will be a daughter - Dariga Nazarbayeva. According to unofficial information, Nursultan Nazarbayev has sons, but they are still too young to be able to transfer power directly, as Geydar Aliyev [in Azerbaijan who transferred power to his son Ilham] did, therefore it is necessary that someone adult, more mature, and Dariga Nazarbayeva for this role is great. There are other options, but the essence of the plan is this: ultimately, to transfer power to one of the sons of Nursultan Abishevich. How far this can be implemented is a separate question.

Nursultan Nazarbayev was in fact the heir of the Soviet leader of Kazakhstan, Dinmukhamed Kunaev, and Nazarbayev himself was essentially the last Soviet leader of Kazakhstan. He took power, speaking Russian, and renounces power, speaking Russian. Obviously, the subsequent leaders of Kazakhstan will not speak Russian during these solemn moments, and it is possible that they will not know him.

Photo: depositphotos.com

Daniil Kislov, Director of the Fergana Information Agency

Nazarbayev is 79 years old, he is seriously ill - they waited for his resignation and prepared for the last six months. Nazarbayev himself understands that he cannot fulfill the duties of the president for health reasons. According to my data, before each of his public speeches he is pumped up with medicines, all the rest of the time he is in anabiosis.

Appointed acting president, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev is very likely to become the future president of Kazakhstan. This model is similar to the Yeltsin-Putin model: Tokayev was the prime minister, ambassador, diplomat, worked in the Foreign Ministry. In general, he is a very reasonable person, perhaps the most intelligent, decent and intelligent of all politicians in Kazakhstan. It would have been much worse if Nazarbayev had appointed and. about. president his daughter. But such a danger was: Dariga Nazarbayeva was always in leadership positions, her husband was also a very influential person. But Nazarbayev chose Tokayev, which means that his brain still works, he can no longer manage the state.

Nazarbayev’s opinion will be considered until his death, because he remained the head of the Security Council, he has the constitutional office of the first president, leader of the nation - as long as he lives, his word will be the most significant in the context of Kazakhstan’s authoritarianism.

The powers of the honorable first president of Kazakhstan Nazarbayev, the head of the nation, the head of the Security Council and the current president of the country will simply be divided: the president will drive, fulfill all the most important functions, and Nazarbayev will play an advisory role, the role of the authority of the nation that he wants to reserve to the grave .

When Uzbek President Islam Karimov died, no one expected that his prime minister, who worked on his team, who served his regime, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, would suddenly become a reforming president. Much more hope can be placed on Tokayev, I think many will perceive his appointment positively.

Today, Kazakhstan is competing on the Central Asian field with awakening Uzbekistan for economic and political primacy. Tokaev is a diplomat who will skillfully play his role here too. At the same time, he will not be able to solve anything alone, which means that the country is still waiting for changes in the higher layers of power, in the elites. Much depends on the team of the future president too.

Arkady Dubnov, political scientist

Nazarbayev is fully capable so that, as the creator of modern Kazakhstan, he will not just let go of the reins of government and guarantee the preservation of this statehood and development [of the country] in the form in which he sees it. Of course, he understands that in 79 years it’s hard to be a permanent patriarch - and he is relegating to the pre-occupied positions of the chairman of the Security Council, whose powers today exceed the powers of the current president.

In such countries, parties like “Nur Otan” [of which Nazarbayev remains chairman] are, as they say, the party of the people. Unlike United Russia, which has a systemic opposition in the form of the Communist Party or Fair Russia, there is not even such a systemic opposition in Kazakhstan. This is a fairly enlightened autocracy, not electoral democracy.

[In terms of the business climate], any change of government means the prospect of a certain movement: as they say, any kipesh, except the hunger strike. First, a certain clarification of the positions of various financial groups will begin, who will be in favor of the duumvirate. Duumvirat remains - Tokayev — Nazarbayev. The formal duumvirate, because Tokayev is a man absolutely devoted to Nazarbayev; he had both the prime minister and foreign minister, and even the deputy secretary general of the UN in Geneva for some time, after which Nazarbayev returned him to Kazakhstan to chair the Senate. So this is a fairly reliable bundle, guaranteed by time.

But, nevertheless, the political movement will begin. Suddenly there will be figures who have not yet declared themselves. And then they may suddenly begin to show some ambition. I do not exclude that business activity will become more expressive than before.

I think that [this scheme of power] is the most stable of all that can be offered today in the entire CIS space, because in Central Asia this is exactly a precedent of a constitutional transfer of power. It is, of course, so conditional, I would say, with crossed fingers, but formally, power is transferred according to the Constitution, the second person in the state, the chairman of the Senate. Another thing is that the supreme referee in the person of Nazarbayev remains, and this, in general, will be perceived rather positively in the country, because he is in some sense the guarantor of stability, it is still Asia. No, absolutely [no shocks in the country should be expected].

Even if someone thinks Tokayev is not a very strong contender for further power, I respond to this, that just such people, about whom they said that they are weak, turned out to be the most capable of retaining power. He is a very skilled politician in the Kazakh glade. He is an oriental politician.

The transfer of power was prepared for a long time, its various scenarios were worked out. But it is this scenario that began to be actively pursued after the change of power in Uzbekistan. Because it was necessary to reliably provide power during the life of the leader, so that he could control everything, not letting go of the reins of government, and on the other hand, to guarantee the interests of the family and the course that it carries out. This is something that, in general, was not very successful in Uzbekistan - perhaps, fortunately for Uzbekistan and the whole surrounding area. But, nevertheless, there was uncertainty in Tashkent for some time, and the world does not know all about it. And here everything seems to be even democratic and constitutional, and this is very good.

Let us recall that Nursultan Nazarbayev, the last “Soviet” leader, spoke live on March 19 and announced his resignation as president a year before the end of his official term in office. Nazarbayev signed his resignation on air immediately after the announcement. We published full text of the appeal and video of historical speech.

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