British Parliament rejects exit plan

The lower house of the British parliament 15 in January overwhelmingly rejected the draft agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, agreed by the British government and the European Union.

Фото: Depositphotos

Immediately after the vote, opposition leader Jeremy Corbin initiated a vote of no confidence in the government, writes with the BBC.

These events may lead to the resignation of the government, early elections, postponement of brexit, and even a repeated referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union.

432 deputies voted against the treaty, 202 members of the House of Commons voted for it. The government has never been defeated by such a margin - 230 votes - in the history of the British Parliament.

“This is a catastrophic defeat for the government,” said opposition Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn as he announced he was formally moving a motion of no confidence in the government.

British Prime Minister Theresa May a minute before announced that if the opposition initiates a vote of no confidence in the government, her office is ready to organize a discussion and vote on this issue tomorrow.

If the vote is passed, the conservatives will have to try to form a new majority government within two weeks, and if they do not succeed, then, according to the country's Constitution, early elections should be announced. The ratings of conservatives and laborers are now roughly equal and fluctuate in the 36-41% range.

In addition to early elections, other scenarios are possible, and most of these options lead to the postponement of the formal withdrawal of Britain from the EU, which was to be held on March 29.

However, extreme solutions to the crisis, including the abolition of brexit, are not excluded.

The majority in the House of Commons opposed the withdrawal agreement agreed by the British government and Brussels, but different groups of deputies did it for completely different reasons. Therefore, none of the possible alternative behaviors towards the EU at the moment is gaining a parliamentary majority, which makes the growing crisis especially difficult and unpredictable.

"Today's vote has shown us what the House is against, but it tells us nothing about what it stands for, how it is going to meet, or even whether it is going to respect the people's decision at all," May said after the vote.

Possible scenarios

"Collapse" exit

By default, if for two and a half months the British political elite fails to solve anything, then March 29 Britain will leave the EU without a settled relationship.

The most violent opponents of the EU, including former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, say that such a shake-up will not be a catastrophe and will ultimately benefit the British economy.

But the majority in the House of Commons is against a “landslide Brexit”: deputies from different parties agree that this would be too heavy a blow to the British economy and a significant blow to the economies of the rest of the EU countries.

On Monday evening, Teresa May was directly asked in the House of Commons if she was ready to delay the withdrawal in order to rule out the possibility of withdrawing without a contract if the House of Commons votes against the proposed version of the contract. The prime minister declined to answer.

Referendum

The events of recent months have greatly inspired supporters of a second referendum on Britain's membership in the EU: they hope that in this referendum the people will “change their minds” about leaving the European Union.

However, the May government and euro skeptics are firmly opposed to the new referendum. They explain that it will only embroil citizens more. In addition, it will be a blow to the fundamentals of democracy: the people have spoken their word, it is necessary to carry out his will, and not to ask the same question again in the hope that you will receive another answer.

The only all-British party that went to the 2017 elections with the slogan of a second referendum is the Liberal Democrats, but they have only 11 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. Both major parties promised to respect the people's choice made in June 2016.

At the same time, the result of the second referendum is also unpredictable. A January YouGov poll shows that 46% of Britons would now vote for the EU and 39% to vote for Leave, but as many as 15% are undecided, similar to polls before the 2016 referendum.

New attempts to negotiate

The House of Commons has already charged the government in the event that the draft treaty with the EU is rejected, and within three working days to propose to the parliament a new version of the treaty.

The problem is that the EU representatives have repeatedly and firmly stated that they do not intend to revise the draft treaty: it’s supposedly the best that they can offer Britain.

But Teresa May and her colleagues in the government can at least try at the same time to persuade a part of the rebel deputies and to get from the EU some more verbal assurances that would suit the members of the House of Commons.

If you fail to do this quickly, you will need to ask the EU for a delay. Brussels has already made it clear that it is ready to provide a postponement for Britain to withdraw from the community until mid-summer.

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, stated that he regretted the results of the voting in the House of Commons and called on the British government to “clarify their intentions regarding their next steps as soon as possible.”

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